Russia was going to gain territory from the minute it moved troops to the Ukrainian border. The only question was how much. Now we know. Russia occupied the breakaway enclaves of Donbas and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine on Monday after formally recognizing the predominantly Russian-speaking regions.
The response from U.S. President Joe Biden and European Union allies has thus far been muted – targeted financial sanctions against three members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and two Russian banks, with the threat of more severe sanctions if the conflict worsens. By announcing that the reaction to further aggression would be more sanctions, the allies have given Putin the answer he was looking for – the West has no stomach for a shooting war.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has few options but to accept the West’s response and rhetorically ask whether the West has forgotten the lessons of the 20th century.
Putin cannot back down without concessions from the West that make him look like the victor to the Russian people – that has been clear since the number of Russian troops on Ukraine's eastern border exceeded 100,000. The West’s reliance on diplomacy has only emboldened Putin. Poker is a game about knowing your opponents' weaknesses as much as it is about knowing your strengths.
The eastern rump of Ukraine may not represent the extent of Putin´s territorial aspirations but merely a new starting point, as the Crimean Peninsula was in 2014. The best the West should hope for is a momentary pause as Putin collects his winnings and considers where to place his next bet. To think otherwise is to misread the moment and Russia’s historical view of its sphere of influence.
Putin understands the West, and views the public support required for action by classical liberal democracies as a weakness to exploit. Ukraine’s Western allies have deployed troops to NATO countries in the region but stopped short of putting boots on Ukrainian soil. Biden has announced he won’t send Americans into Ukraine, giving Putin one less wild card to worry about.
While Western diplomats have long hoped Russia would become more democratic with the influence of capitalism, Putin has remained steadfast in his view of Russia’s rightful place in the world. The only moderating influence on Russia’s ambitions has been changes in the value of its natural resource exports.
In any negotiation, it’s important to understand what motivates the other side. Putin’s objectives are twofold. The first is expanding the buffer zone between Russia and the West. The second, and perhaps less obvious goal, is to maximize the value of Russia’s natural resources by building direct links to the large consuming countries of Western Europe.
Russia’s economy depends on exporting its vast oil and gas resources. Putin understands that these valuable commodities could become stranded within a few short decades as Europe and much of the world transition to alternative energy sources.
More robust governance of the energy sector, specifically the European Court’s elevation of the solidarity principle – in short, one for all and all for one – have moved the E.U. closer to realizing its goal of a single market capable of holding all participants to the same rulebook, adding to the pressure on Putin to commercialize Russia’s energy resources before it’s too late.
In the near term, an effective deterrent is needed to halt the advancement of Russian troops and salvage what’s possible of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Sanctions alone are insufficient.
In the longer term, the 27 members of the EU need a unified approach to threats from outside their shared borders, whether those challenges are military or commercial. For all its aspirations of integration, the EU remains a collection of independent states with separate identities that lack a common defense and foreign affairs policy.
The conflict with Moscow and related wrangling over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline exposed the lack of unity among the EU’s dominant powers, Germany and France, which hinders its ability to present a unified front, leaving space for Putin to maneuver.
The reality is that Europe depends on Russia’s vast natural resources. But it’s also true that Russia needs access to the EU market of roughly 450 million people. The mightiest tool in the EU’s toolbox, therefore, is the rules governing its common market.
Expecting Russia to change is foolhardy. Given an inch, Putin will take a mile. The EU should strengthen its internal market rules and create tighter security commitments among its members to become a far more effective counterbalance to Russia.
Robert Dillon is a Senior Fellow for National Security and Energy with the Joseph Rainey Center for Public Policy and Martin Jirusek, Ph.D., is Assistant Professor of International Relations and European Studies at Masaryk University.
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