Vance Leads a Fractured Field, But the Coalition That Wins May Not Be His

Vance Leads a Fractured Field, But the Coalition That Wins May Not Be His

Vice President Vance’s 38 percent makes him the clear frontrunner, but the underlying numbers tell a more complicated story. His support is heavily concentrated among the party’s traditional base: older, white, self-identified Republicans.

Vance’s central vulnerability is Independents. Among Independents, 46 percent choose “someone else,” the largest response in the survey. Vance’s 19 percent with this group is barely ahead of Rubio’s 12 percent. The candidate who figures out how to consolidate the Independent lane could fundamentally reshape this race.

METHODOLOGY

This poll surveyed 832 registered Republicans and Independents via online panel from January 28-29, 2026. Results were weighted by gender, age, race, and education to match population demographics. The margin of error is ±3.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.